The recent financial crisis has seen huge swings in corporate bond spreads. It is analyzed what quality VAR-based forecasts would have had prior and during the crisis period. Given that forecasts of the mean of interest rates or financial market prices are subject to large uncertainty independent of the class of models used, major emphasis is put on the quality of measures of forecast uncertainty. The VAR considered is based on a model first suggested in the literature in 2005. In a rolling window analysis, both the model’s forecasts and joint prediction bands are calculated making use of recently proposed methods. Besides a traditional analysis of the forecast quality, the performance of the proposed prediction bands is assessed. It is shown that the actual coverage of joint prediction bands is superior to the coverage of naïve prediction bands constructed pointwise.
The panorama of creative attitudes, the forms of expression and the techniques present in Polish graphic art around the year 1918 was very vast. The graphic artists dedicated to realistic mode of imaging, the visionaries as well as the innovators of the first avant-garde, searching for fresh means of expression in graphic arts worked next to one another. The artwork referring to the fights in the fronts of World War I, the illustrations of everyday prison camp existence, the portraits of the commanders as well as the privates of Legiony (Leopold Gottlieb’s file of lithographs, 1916) were created simultaneously to the works by Felix Jabłczyński (who experimented with various graphic techniques, but also referred the current political situation in his works) or the 1st file of lithographs, Bożki Słowiańskie [Slavic Idols] (1918), by Zofia Stryjeńska. Between 1917 and 1921, the artists of the first avant-garde (from Formiści and Bunt art groups) who practiced graphic arts continued their endeavours in searching for a new form, initiated several years earlier. In 1918, Władysław Skoczylas, the author of a woodcut Święty Boże (Wojna) [Holy God (War)] from 1916, a work which opened a new chapter in the history of Polish woodcut, moved permanently to Warsaw. Regaining of national independence and shaping the borders of the Second Repu blic was mirrored in symbolic lithographs by Felicjan S. Kowarski, dating around 1921. Around 1918, the explorations within graphic arts made by the artists from Krakow and Warsaw were enhanced by some new centres, up to then outermost realm of the map of art. One of such places was Toruń, where, in 1920, Konfrateria Toruńska [Toruń Confraternity] was established. Its members practiced artistic and functional graphic art as well. One of them, Felicjan S. Kowarski, founded Artistic-Graphic Workshop “Sztuka”. In 1919 in Poznań, the State School of Decorative Arts and Art Industry was established (with the graphic arts department); in 1920 on Bydgoszcz the State School of Art Industry (with Karol Mondral as its graphic arts instructor). In 1919, the Faculty of Fine Arts at Vilnius Batory University created the Studio of Applied Arts (with Decorations and Graphic Arts Studios). The same year, the Association of Polish Graphic Artists, functioning nationwide, was founded. The article signals the wealth of initiatives as well as the formal and ideological diversity of graphic works created around 1918, those referring to the war and independence issues as well as those aimed at perfecting the technique, the novelty of form, and those revealing certain style-genic aspirations. The author attempts to answer the question of the place of creative (and functional) graphic arts in the first years of the reborn Polish state and indicates which concepts (present around 1918) lay at the foundation of the unprecedented blossoming of graphic arts that occurred the Second Polish Republic.
The paper presents the results of the numerical analyses for the steam turbine rotor, dedicated for the newly-designed 900 MW steam unit with supercritical steam parameters (650 °C, 30.0 MPa). Basing on the design calculations, an optimal design solution was determined. Review of the available literature on materials for turbine rotors with supercritical steam parameters was done. Then the start-ups of the turbine were simulated. Thermal and strength states were analyzed. As a result, an optimal start-up characteristic was obtained.
A buckling analysis of temperature-dependent embedded plates reinforced by single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) subjected to a magnetic field is investigated. The SWCNTs are distributed as uniform (UD) and three types of functionally graded nanotubes (FG), in which the material properties of the nano-composite plate are estimated based on the mixture rule. The surrounding temperature-dependent elastic medium is simulated as Pasternak foundation. Based on the orthotropic Mindlin plate theory, the governing equations are derived using Hamilton's principle. The buckling load of the structure is calculated based on an exact solution by the Navier method. The influences of elastic medium, magnetic field, temperature and distribution type, and volume fractions of SWCNT are shown on the buckling of the plate. Results indicate that CNT distribution close to the top and bottom are more efficient than that distributed near the mid-plane for increasing the stiffness of the plates.
The article presents the use of the Mamdani fuzzy reasoning model to develop a proposal of a system controlling partnering relations in construction projects. The system input variables include: current assessments of particular partnering relation parameters, the weights of these parameters’ impact on time, cost, quality and safety of implementation of construction projects, as well as the importance of these project assessment criteria for its manager. For each of the partnering relation parameters, the project’s manager will receive controlrecommendations. Moreover, the parameter to be improved first will be indicated. The article contains a calculation example of the system’s operations.
The photo-oxidability of lipids taken from 32 samples of krill from different dates of catch has been examined for photooxidation. Relations were indicated between the rate of accumulation of peroxides in the process of lipids, exposure and content of lipids in krill, its iodine value and amount number of carotenoids.
In the article, the authors presented the results of microbiological air quality studies in selected buildings with additional thermal insulation applied from the inside using a silicate and lime system, as well as the results of a survey study concerning the comfort of use of said buildings. The microbiological air quality studies, conducted in buildings immediately prior to and after the application of additional thermal insulation using silicate and lime sheets, demonstrated a significant decrease in the number of mould spores in interior spaces. This was also reflected in the results of a survey study. The survey study was conducted with users of public and commercial buildings and municipal housing buildings in Krakow. Thanks to the additional insulation applied from inside using the silicate and lime system, all of the utilitarian parameters of internal spaces had improved. The most significant changes concerned parameters like comfort of use, the aesthetic of the spaces and breathing comfort. According to experts, the silicate and lime system was also rated highly in terms of the analysed parameters.