The paper concerns a risk assessment and management methodology in critical infrastructures. The aim of the paper is to present researches on risk management within the experimentation tool based on the OSCAD software. The researches are focused on interdependent infrastructures where the specific phenomena, like escalating and cascading effects, may occur. The objective of the researches is to acquire knowledge about risk issues within interdependent infrastructures, to assess the usefulness of the OSCAD-based risk manager in this application domain, and to identify directions for further R&D works. The paper contains a short introduction to risk management in critical infrastructures, presents the state of the art, and the context, plan and scenarios of the performed validation experiments. Next, step by step, the validation is performed. It encompasses two collaborating infrastructures (railway, energy). It is shown how a hazardous event impacts the given infrastructure (primary and secondary eects) and the neighbouring infrastructure. In the conclusions the experiments are summarized, the OSCAD software assessed and directions of the future works identified.
The article aims to study the determinants of the energy policy implementation process from
risks and danger perspectives by building the risk management system model. The research methodology
is based on the application of the risk map to the energy policy. Our results confirmed
that the risk map could be applied in the energy industry to identify the risks and to implement the
energy policy risk management system model which will prevent critical uncertainties and risk
structure, identified from the risk map as well as bring the energy industry to the future state by
implementing scenarios and strategies, developed by the World Energy Council. The research limitations
are that the main limits are concerned with the lack of the evaluation results of the energy
policy risks aimed for the system management of the changes which these risks may introduce. No
empirical study has been conducted. The application of the risk map is related in a major part to
the enterprise level with financial and technical purposes of changes. In the research we made an
attempt to develop the managerial recommendations for the regulators on how to make a transitions
of risks to opportunities of introducing and managing changes in the framework of the energy
policy risk management system model. The originality/ value of the paper consists firstly, in the innovativeness
of applying the tool of matrix forecasting to the energy sector; secondly, in providing
a supporting tool to policy-makers and managers decisions.
The model is developed for the intellectualized decision-making support system on financing of cyber security means of transport cloud-based computing infrastructures, given the limited financial resources. The model is based on the use of the theory of multistep games tools. The decision, which gives specialists a chance to effectively assess risks in the financing processes of cyber security means, is found. The model differs from the existing approaches in the decision of bilinear multistep quality games with several terminal surfaces. The decision of bilinear multistep quality games with dependent movements is found. On the basis of the decision for a one-step game, founded by application of the domination method and developed for infinite antagonistic games, the conclusion about risks for players is drawn. The results of a simulation experiment within program implementation of the intellectualized decision-making support system in the field of financing of cyber security means of cloudbased computing infrastructures on transport are described. Confirmed during the simulation experiment, the decision assumes accounting a financial component of cyber defense strategy at any ratios of the parameters, describing financing process.
Almost every construction investment should contain elements of risk forecasting, whose validity depends, among other things, on the correct assessment of potential threats. These risks were defined by the Authors as risk factors that were characterized and then grouped on the basis of performed research in the scope of their identification. Due to lack of method of scheduling railway investments on the construction market, including risk assessment, a research effort was undertaken [14-17], the result of which is the proposed method. The article presents the main assumptions of the original method of rail investment planning, which on the one hand, will take into account the impact of potential threats identified previously by the Authors, and, on the other, will allow project managers to refer to the conditions in which the implementation of a specific facility is planned. The assumption was made that the method, relatively easy to implement, supported by an appropriate computational program, will encourage teams planning the implementation of railway undertakings to its application and will improve the reliability of the schedules they develop.
The main objective of the article is to present quantified and measurable risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance of inspected and monitored 48 commercial construction projects and their feasibility to be carried out. Original technical, financial and organisational feasibility studies in compliance with a rigorous Bank Investment Supervision requirements have been executed by the author in the period of 2005–2018. Methodology of construction project appraisal for financing and execution professional preparation have been laid out – technical documentation, arrangements, realisation. Analysis and assessment of Bank Investment Supervision consisted of project execution plan PEP, geotechnical and environmental conditions, permit design, agreements and decision impacts of local authorities, engineering contract for construction works, project insurance and performance bonds, schedule of execution tasks and their costs, payment plan, investment budget and project economical effectiveness, scope of monthly construction works execution assessed by Earned Value Method approach and handover procedure of construction project. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented. Finally, risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance variability of commercial construction projects within last two years of booming investment industry have been determined.
The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.
The aim of the paper is to point out that the Monte Carlo simulation is an easy and flexible approach when it comes to forecasting risk of an asset portfolio. The case study presented in the paper illustrates the problem of forecasting risk arising from a portfolio of receivables denominated in different foreign currencies. Such a problem seems to be close to the real issue for enterprises offering products or services on several foreign markets. The changes in exchange rates are usually not normally distributed and, moreover, they are always interdependent. As shown in the paper, the Monte Carlo simulation allows for forecasting market risk under such circumstances.
Earth Pressure Balanced shields are currently the most utilized tunnelling machines throughout around the world. The possibility of using conditioning agents that change the mechanical and hydraulic behaviour of a soil, changing it into a plastic paste and thus permitting soil pressure applications at the tunnel face, is the key point to explain the increasing utilization of this technology. Despite its great importance, not much laboratory researches can be registered on soil conditioning, particularly for cohesionless soils. The conditioning criterion is usually defined on the basis of a trial-and-error procedure developed directly at the job sites. A test that is able to simulate the extraction of soil from the bulk chamber with the screw conveyor inclined upwards, as in real machines, can offer a quantitative indication of the conditioned soil behavior for EPB use. The characteristics of the device and the results obtained on many different types of soil are discussed in order to point out the great importance and quality of results that can be achieved using the proposed test device.
The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina, Mendoza. To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2 was used to generate statistics on L. botrana captures and the mean temperature accumulation for the pixel. Four sets of logistic regression were constructed using the percentage of accumulated trap catches/grid/week and the degree-day accumulation above 7°C, from 1st July. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. According to our results, it can be expected that 50% of male adult emergence for the first flight occurs at 248.79 ± 4 degree-days (DD), in the second flight at 860.18 ± 4.1 DD, while in the third and the fourth flights, 1671.34 ± 5.8 DD and 2335.64 ± 4.3 DD, respectively. Subsequent climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological model. The upper valley of Río Negro and Neuquén are environmentally similar. Valleys of the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered. The combination of two models for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species.