@ARTICLE{Kaliński_Jakub_Investment_2018,
 author={Kaliński, Jakub and Paska, Józef and Pawlak, Karol and Terlikowski, Paweł and Urbanek, Dawid},
 volume={vol. 21},
 number={No 4},
 journal={Polityka Energetyczna - Energy Policy Journal},
 pages={125-140},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2018},
 publisher={Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN},
 abstract={The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.},
 type={Article},
 title={Investment risk in the energy sector on the example of a biogas power plant},
 URL={http://ochroma.man.poznan.pl/Content/108646/PDF/07-Kalinski-i-inni.pdf},
 doi={10.24425/124504},
 keywords={Investment risk, risk management, uncertainty, Monte Carlo, Value at risk, biogas plant},
}