@ARTICLE{Sobczyk_Eugeniusz_Jacek_The_2020,
 author={Sobczyk, Eugeniusz Jacek and Sokołowski, Andrzej and Kopacz, Michał and Fijorek, Kamil and Denkowska, Sabina},
 volume={vol. 36},
 number={No 3},
 journal={Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management},
 pages={75-96},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2020},
 publisher={Komitet Zrównoważonej Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi PAN},
 publisher={Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN},
 abstract={This publication presents the research aimed at developing statistical models, on the basis of which it was possible to prepare credible forecasts of unit cost and coal net output for longwalls in 5 hard coal mines in P oland. The argument has been verified that there is a dependence between the level of nuisance and the level of costs, as well as longwall production results. A research procedure has been developed for that purpose, which aimed at developing two statistical models connecting the nuisance due to geological and mining conditions with costs and longwall production results. The multiple linear regression technique has been used to develop statistical models. The set of data taken into account in the analyses comprised 120 longwalls mined in the years 2010–2019. Two models have been developed – one for forecasting unit costs, the other for forecasting coal net output. Subsequently, the models’ forecasting ability has been verified on a sample of historical data. A relative forecast error for 75% of observations has been in the range of (–25%; +37%). That result has been considered satisfactory. Subsequently, using those models, forecasts of unit costs and coal net output have been prepared for 220 longwalls planned for mining in the years 2020–2030. Those forecasts have been prepared in the stipulated ranges of geological and mining nuisance influencing mining process, by means of dedicated W Ue and W Ut factors. The nuisance models for forecasting purposes have been developed using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. The research hypothesis has been confirmed on the basis of the obtained results. An increase in the level of nuisance leads to an increase in the unit costs for longwalls and the deterioration of production results. Unit operating costs for longwalls in specific ranges of nuisance may differ by up to 30%, being in the range of 52.0–120.3 zł/Mg. Likewise, the coal daily output of longwalls may be even 22% lower, having the average level in the range of 1.89–3.61 thousand Mg/d.},
 type={Article},
 title={The analysis of dependence of the level of operational costs and production outputs upon geological and mining conditions in selected hard coal mines in Poland},
 URL={http://ochroma.man.poznan.pl/Content/117029/PDF/sobczyk-i-inni.pdf},
 doi={10.24425/gsm.2020.133932},
 keywords={Polish mining sector, longwall production and costs, geological and mining conditions, nuisance, AHP and regression analysis},
}