The purpose of this paper is to model daily returns of the WIG20 index. The idea is to consider a model that explicitly takes changes in the amplitude of the clusters of volatility into account. This variation is modelled by a positive-valued deterministic component. A novelty in specification of the model is that the deterministic component is specified before estimating the multiplicative conditional variance component. The resulting model is subjected to misspecification tests and its forecasting performance is compared with that of commonly applied models of conditional heteroskedasticity.
The aim of the article is to construct an asymptotically consistent test, based on a subsampling approach, to verify hypothesis about existence of the individual or common deterministic cycle in coordinates of multivariate macroeconomic time series. By the deterministic cycle we mean the periodic or almost periodic fluctuations in the mean function in cyclical fluctuations. To construct test we formulate a multivariate non-parametric model containing the business cycle component in the unconditional mean function. The construction relies on the Fourier representation of the unconditional expectation of the multivariate Almost Periodically Correlated time series and is related to fixed deterministic cycle presented in the literature. The analysis of the existence of common deterministic business cycles for selected European countries is presented based on monthly industrial production indexes. Our main findings from the empirical part is that the deterministic cycle can be strongly supported by the data and therefore should not be automatically neglected during analysis without justification.
The main aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on technical efficiency of Polish dairy farms. We have distinguished several types of subsidies and provided an analysis to find out which types are most likely to engender systematic differences in technical efficiency. A balanced panel of microeconomic data on Polish dairy farms over an eight-year period (between 2004 and 2011), taken from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), is used. The translog production function is estimated by employing the Bayesian approach. The empirical results show that the elasticity of production with respect to livestock is the highest, whereas with respect to feed is the lowest. The mean technical efficiency in the covered period is 83%. The research reveals the negative effect of subsidies on technical efficiency.
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