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Papers on Global Change IGBP

Papers on Global Change IGBP

ISSN
ISSN 1730-802X
Publishers
Polish Academy of Sciences

Editor-in-Chief
MAŁGORZATA GUTRY-KORYCKA, Warsaw University, Poland


Deputy/ Managing Editor
LESZEK STARKEL– Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization PAS, Warsaw, Poland


Editorial Advisory Board
LARS BÄRRING, Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University, Sweden
MARTIN BENISTON, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
MARCO BINDI, University of Florence, Italy
CHRISTOS GIANNAKOPOULOS, Institute of Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Greece
REINHARD F. HÜTTL, Brandenburg Technical University, Cottus, Germany
ZBIGNIEW W. KUNDZEWICZ, Institute for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Science, Poznań, Poland
GASTONE DEMARÉE, Institut Rogal Meteorologique de Belgique
JOÃO CORTE REAL, University of Evora, Portugal
LESZEK STARKEL, Polish Academy of Science, Kraków, Poland
HANS von STORCH, Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Germany


Language Editors
JAMES RICHARDS – National School of Public Administration Warsaw Poland


Technical Editors
GRAŻYNA SELIGA, Institute of Geography And Spatial Organization , Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, Poland,
AGATA MARKOWSKA, Director of Polish Academy of Sciences, The Warsaw Printers Science, Poland

 

Prof. Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka,
Hydrology Department and Regional Studies,
University of Warsaw,
Krakowskie Przedmieście 30,
00-927 Warsaw, Poland,
tel (48-22)5520665, e-mail: msgutryk@uw.edu.pl

  • Volumes
  • Instructions for authors

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Content

Papers on Global Change IGBP | 2013 | No 20

1 Variability to sedimentary dynamics and climatic conditions during the last two millennia at sebkha Souassi in eastern Tunisia
Elhoucine Essefi , Hayet Ben Jmaa , Jamel Touir , Mohamed Ali Tagortig , Chokri Yaicha
Papers on Global Change IGBP | 2013 | No 20 | DOI: 10.2478/igbp-2013-0001
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Abstract

AbstractThis paper covers work intended to study the interplay of sedimentary dynamics and climatic variability over the last two millennia within Tunisia’s sebkha Souassi. Based on the Visual Core Description, and magnetic susceptibility, we date the core from sebkha Souassi to the last two millennia. Genetic grain-size distribution then provided a basis for the identification of six climatic stages, i.e. the Warming Present (WP), the Late Little Ice Age (Late LIA), the Early Little Ice Age (ELIA), the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), the Dark Ages (DA), and the Roman Warm Period (RWP). The WP stretches across the uppermost 3 cm, with a high grey scale indicating a dry climate. The Late LIA is located between 3 and 7 cm, and the ELIA between 7 and 28 cm. Intermediate values for GS indicate that this stage may be classified as moderate. The MCA spanning from 28 to 40 cm is marked by a sharp decrease in GS indicative of a wet period. The DA appear along the part between 40 and 79 cm, a shift from light to dark sediments being recorded. The RWP in turn appears between 79 and 114 cm. Based on the grain-size distribution, two low-frequency cycles were identified, indicating radical global changes in climatic conditions, differential tectonics and groundwater fluctuations. High-frequency cycles in turn attest to local modifications of climatic conditions.
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Authors and Affiliations

Elhoucine Essefi
Hayet Ben Jmaa
Jamel Touir
Mohamed Ali Tagortig
Chokri Yaicha
2 Forecast changes for heat and cold stress in Warsaw in the 21st century, and their possible influence on mortality risk
Krzysztof Błażejczyk , Danuta Idzikowska , Anna Błażejczyk
Papers on Global Change IGBP | 2013 | No 20 | DOI: 10.2478/igbp-2013-0002
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Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents the results of research dealing with forecast changes in the frequency of occurrence of heat and cold stress in Warsaw (Poland) in the years 2001-2100, and the possible influence these may exert on mortality risk. Heat and cold stress were assessed by reference to the U niversal T hermal C limate I ndex (UTC I), for which values were calculated using meteorological data derived from the MPI-M-RE MO regional climate model, at a with spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. The simulations used boundary conditions from the EC HAMP5 Global Climate Model, for SRES scenario A1B. Predictions of mortality rate were in turn based on experimental epidemiological data from the period 1993-2002. Medical data consist of daily numbers of deaths within the age category above 64 years (TM64+). It proved possible to observe a statistically significant relationship between UTC I and mortality rates, this serving as a basis for predicting possible changes in mortality in the 21st century due to changing conditions as regards heat and cold stress.
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Authors and Affiliations

Krzysztof Błażejczyk
Danuta Idzikowska
Anna Błażejczyk
3 Demographic processes: past, present and future − selected issues
Ewa Zofia Frątczak
Papers on Global Change IGBP | 2013 | No 20 | DOI: 10.2478/igbp-2013-0003
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Abstract

AbstractThis papers refers to demographic processes in the period from the 19th century through to the present and tries to define what they will look like in the future. Demographic trends i.a. relating to fertility, mortality, migrations, the process of family-union-household formation and dissolution, and the process of population ageing, are described by the concepts of demographic transformations: first, second and third. The transformation of demographic trends has coexisted and will coexist with globalization processes, though the scope of the mutual influence changes over time. Despite the fact that it takes place in various geographical regions, the transformation of demographic trends is characterised by high cultural diversity and socio-economic development.
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Authors and Affiliations

Ewa Zofia Frątczak
4 Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change
Jerzy Bański
Papers on Global Change IGBP | 2013 | No 20 | DOI: 10.2478/igbp-2013-0004
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Abstract

AbstractThe aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the “climatically displaced” in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase.In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jerzy Bański

Instructions for authors

Scope

The Papers of Global Change IGBP publishes annually and is devoted to the publication of research results in related to all areas of Global Climate Change. The journal is peer-reviewed. The language of the journal is English, verified by native speaker.


Manuscript submission

Manuscripts preferred for publication in Papers of Global Change IGBP are those which:

  • contain original work - which is not published elsewhere in any medium by the authors or anyone else, and is not under consideration for publication in any other medium. This restriction does not apply to review articles
  • are focused on the core aims and scope of the journal - Papers of Global Change IGBP is a scientific journal publishing fundamental research results in all areas of climate change (geophysics, physical geography ecology, climatology, economy, human sciences etc.);
  • are clearly and correctly written - should contain all essential features of a complete scientific paper, should be written in a clear, easy to understand manner, and be readable for a wide audience of scientists;
  • are written in English - should be clearly and grammatically written, in an easily readable style. Attention to detail of the language will avoid severe misunderstandings which might lead to rejection of the paper (Please note that authors who are not native-speakers of English can be provided with help in rewriting their contribution in correct English)
  • are delivered in electronic format

 

Manuscripts should be emailed directly to the Editor of Papers of Global Change IGBP (Prof. Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka, e-mail: msgutryk@uw.edu.pl)

The covering letter should contain all important details about the submission such as:

  • your full name (submitted by),
  • the full title of your article,
  • the short title,
  • full list of authors,
  • status of article: new, reviewed or accepted (with reference ID if reviewed or accepted),
  • mail address and contact address,
  • telephone/fax numbers,
  • number of attached files,
  • details of any previous or concurrent submission,
  • area you would like to submit your manuscript in,
  • recommendations of reviewers for Editor

Papers of Global Change IGBP publishes:

  • research articles,
  • communications- short reports on new and exciting results of high urgency,
  • review papers - topical mini(reviews) as well as full critical reviews on important subjects reflecting new trends are also included in this section
  • science book reviews.
  • chronicle related with international /national conference connected with global climate  change and theirs consequences.


Peer Review Process

All manuscripts are sent to the appropriate reviewers by Managing Editor. However a submission may be declined by the Editor in Chief without review, if deemed inappropriate for reasons other than scientific merit.

 

  1. choice of reviewers
    2. The Managing Editor of Papers of Global Change IGBP seek advice from experts of in the appropriate field. Research articles and reviews papers are reviewed by one reviewer.
  2. suggestions from authors
    3. Authors are requested to suggest persons competent to review their manuscript. However please note that this will be treated only as a suggestion, and the final selection of reviewers is exclusively the Editor in Chief's decision.


The Editor in Chief is fully responsible for decisions about manuscripts. The final decision whether to accept or reject a paper rests with him. The Managing Editor communicates the final de

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